Streaming TV, AI, 2026 Outlooks

TLDR:

2026 is going to reward advertisers who lean into streaming TV + AI, but treat them like performance channels, not shiny objects. If you’re still buying CTV like it’s 2016 linear, you’re going to overpay and underperform.

1. The macro backdrop: growth with a headache

Let’s start with the boring but important part: the macro.

Global growth is expected to slow slightly in 2026, with organizations like the OECD already flagging a deceleration and calling out a potential AI-driven equity bubble as a key downside risk.

Translation:

• Money will still flow into AI and digital,

• But credit won’t be as cheap,

• And anything that can’t prove its value will get cut fast.

That creates a very clear mandate for media buyers: every CTV dollar needs a performance story, not just a brand halo.

2. Streaming & CTV in 2026: still growing, but more concentrated

Even with macro headwinds, CTV and streaming video remain in growth mode:

• Global CTV ad spend is estimated at $40–45B in 2025, with ~12% annual growth over the next 3 years. (BCG Global)

• In the US, forecasts put CTV ad spend past ~$37B in 2026, up roughly 14% year over year.

• Other projections have US CTV ad spend heading toward $43–44B by 2026.

• Digital video as a whole is expected to capture nearly 60% of all TV/video ad spend in 2025, after overtaking linear in 2024. (IAB)

At the same time, retail media networks are on track to surpass combined linear + CTV spend around 2026, which means streaming will increasingly sit inside a broader commerce and retail-media strategy rather than in its own silo. (Marketing Report)

And structurally:

• CTV buying is becoming heavily programmatic. Programmatic CTV spend more than doubled from 2022 to 2024 and is projected to hit $27B in 2025, representing over 80% of total CTV spend in some forecasts.

• US CTV ad spend is expected to surpass linear by around 2028, but live sports still lean heavily on traditional TV for now. (EMARKETER)

What this means for you in 2026:

1. Streaming is not experimental anymore. It’s a core line item, and CFOs will treat it that way.

2. Budgets will concentrate with platforms that have scale, identity, and commerce signals (think Amazon, YouTube/Google, retail media networks, and a shrinking set of big publishers). (EMARKETER)

3. The gap between “good” and “average” CTV buyers will widen based on data access, measurement sophistication, and AI readiness.

3. AI: from buzzword to operating system for media

In 2024–2025, AI moved from hype decks into the actual marketing stack. By now:

• AI is “at the center of the marketing stack”, automating workflows, personalizing at scale, and tuning spend in real time.

• Around 46% of marketers say they use AI to scale creative, and about one-third use AI across creative, media, and measurement.

• Morgan Stanley expects nearly half of US online shoppers to use AI shopping agents by 2030, adding around $115B to e-commerce. (Business Insider)

• Gartner is projecting that ~90% of B2B buying will be AI-agent intermediated by 2028, pushing $15T+ of spend through AI agent exchanges. (Gartner)

At the same time, some economists are already warning we may be in an AI investment bubble with classic signs of overvaluation and over-ownership. (Business Insider)

So we’re in this weird dual reality where:

• AI as infrastructure is absolutely the future,

• AI as a stock story might be overpriced,

• And marketers are caught in the middle trying to separate signal from noise.

4. How AI will specifically reshape streaming TV ads in 2026

Here’s what I expect to be “normal” for sophisticated advertisers by 2026.

4.1. AI-native planning & buying

Instead of manual spreadsheets and quarterly reallocations, we’ll see:

• AI-assisted budget allocation across CTV, linear, retail media, and social video based on incremental reach and modeled outcomes.

• Always-on path-to-conversion modeling tying CTV exposure to downstream events: site visits, app opens, add-to-cart, and in some cases, in-store sales.

• Scenario planning (“If I move 10% from linear to Amazon/YouTube/FAST, what happens to reach and ROAS?”) done by agents in minutes, not analysts in weeks.

4.2. Creative that adapts in near real time

On the creative front, AI will be the quiet engine behind:

• Versioning CTV spots for different audiences, dayparts, and contexts—same core concept, dozens of intelligent variations.

• Dynamic overlays (offers, pricing, creative frames) driven by inventory, weather, or audience segment.

• Second-screen orchestration: your CTV spot triggers aligned mobile, social, or search messaging within minutes of exposure, tuned by AI.

Second-screen behavior—viewers scrolling their phones while streaming—is already being treated as an opportunity, not a distraction. Streamers like Tubi and Disney/Hulu are leaning into shoppable and interactive formats that connect the TV screen to the phone via QR codes and cross-device retargeting. (Business Insider)

4.3. Measurement & incrementality: AI as reconciler

By 2026, the biggest value of AI in CTV won’t be “write me a script”—it will be:

• Reconciling messy, fragmented identity across walled gardens, clean rooms, and open web.

• Building probabilistic, privacy-safe reach and frequency curves without relying on third-party cookies.

• Running continuous lift and incrementality tests in the background and feeding those learnings back into bidding and budget decisions.

5. The economic “gotchas” advertisers need to plan around

This all sounds bullish—and structurally, it is. But there are real risks advertisers should be planning for in 2026.

5.1. AI & CTV inflation

As more dollars chase “premium streaming inventory” and AI makes it easier to bid, CPMs can and will inflate—especially around live sports, tentpole events, and high-demand audiences. (EMARKETER)

If rates rise faster than your ability to prove incrementality, you’ll be under pressure internally.

How to respond:

• Treat CTV as a portfolio, not a handful of “logo” buys. Mix:

  • Big-name streamers,

  • FAST/AVOD players,

  • Retail and commerce media,

  • And where it makes sense, programmatic open marketplace with strict guardrails.

• Use AI to dial bids dynamically based on performance, not publisher prestige.

5.2. Overreliance on platforms’ native AI

Every major platform will tell you: “Our AI will optimize everything for you.”

That’s convenient—but dangerous.

• You risk black-box optimization that favors the platform’s economics over yours.

• You lose the ability to benchmark performance across channels fairly.

• In a downturn, it’s harder to defend your budgets when you can’t explain what’s actually working.

How to respond:

• Build or partner into independent measurement and marketing science.

• Maintain a neutral layer—your own data model and attribution approach—above the platforms’ optimizers.

• Use platform AI, but feed it with your own guardrails (targeting rules, frequency caps, brand safety, and business KPIs).

5.3. Regulatory and privacy pressure

As AI and CTV become more data-hungry, we should expect:

• More scrutiny around cross-device tracking and smart TV data.

• Tighter rules on household-level targeting and data sharing between retailers, streamers, and ad tech.

That won’t kill performance—but it will reward advertisers who are prepared with:

• Strong first-party data strategies,

• Clean room capabilities,

• And a move toward context + commerce signals rather than invasive identity graphs.

6. What I’m telling Lambos Digital clients to actually do in 2026

Here’s how I’d summarize the 2026 game plan for advertisers who want to win in streaming and AI, instead of just talking about it.

6.1. Rebuild your video stack around outcomes, not formats

Stop thinking “TV vs CTV vs social video.” Build a unified video strategy that:

• Starts from business outcomes (new car sales, financed applications, subscriptions, store visits).

• Lets AI and media teams decide where each incremental dollar goes—linear, CTV, retail media, or social—based on modeled lift, not habit.

6.2. Make AI part of your operating model, not a toy

By 2026, I expect leading brands and agencies to:

• Have AI agents that continuously:

  • Re-plan CTV budgets,

  • Trigger new creative variants,

  • And flag waste (channels where frequency spikes and lift disappears).

• Use AI to audit their own media: “Show me the 20% of spend that delivered 0 measurable lift last quarter.”

If you’re not moving toward that, you’re effectively accepting the 20–30% “waste tax” most marketers admit exists today.

6.3. Invest in measurement and experimentation as a fixed cost

In a world where an AI bubble might pop, interest rates could rise, and CFOs are sharpening knives, the best insurance policy you can buy is proof.

In practice:

• Dedicate a fixed share of CTV/streaming budget (5–10%) to structured tests: geo splits, platform holdouts, creative lift studies.

• Build a quarterly incrementality report that your CFO can read in 5 minutes.

• Treat your data science/measurement team like core infrastructure, not a nice-to-have.

7. Final thought: 2026 rewards the disciplined, not the loud

We’re heading into a year where:

• Streaming TV ad spend is still growing double-digits,

• AI is quietly becoming the operating system of modern media,

• And the broader economy is more fragile than the headlines suggest.

The winners in 2026 won’t be the brands that shout “AI” the loudest on stage. They’ll be the ones who:

• Buy streaming like a performance channel with brand benefits,

• Use AI to eliminate waste and surface truth,

• And can walk into a boardroom and say, “Here’s exactly what our CTV dollars bought us.”

That’s the bar we’re holding ourselves to at Lambos Digital and it’s the bar I think every serious advertiser should be aiming for next year.